Executive Commodity Monitor

LightGBM · live model

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report & FRED · commercial crude stocks excluding SPR · week ending Sep 25, 2026

Latest inventory

414.9M bbl

+1.7%vs 5-year average

Weekly change

+6.77M bbl

Net buildPrior week +8.59M

Next-week forecast

95% CI

412.7M bbl

Band 406.4–419.1M±6.3M

Model accuracy

+35.7%MAE gain

vs seasonal-naive baselineLightGBM

Crude oil inventory levels

Commercial stocks excluding SPR, million barrels, with the 8-week outlook

Observed
Forecast
95% CI

5-year range

360.6–442.6M

Cushing hub

27.6M (+2.4M)

4-week change

+11.1M build

Backtest R²

0.270

Gemini AI Assistant

Preview · not connected

Refinery runs lead the draw
2m ago
Utilisation above 90% explains most of this week's forecast draw. Imports on a 4-week average partly offset it.
Wide uncertainty band
14m ago
The 95% interval still crosses zero, so a small build next week remains plausible.

Benchmark spot pricing

EIA · weekly close

WTI Crude Cushing

$74.12/bbl

−4.03 (−5.16%)

Week ending Sep 25, 2026

12-week range$72.28 – $78.15

Brent Crude North Sea

$79.20/bbl

−1.45 (−1.80%)

Spread +5.08 vs WTI

12-week range$75.97 – $82.04

Executive intelligence synthesis

Generated from this week's data

Refinery utilisation91.0% (−1.4 pts)

Refineries processed 16.14M b/d of crude, running at 91.0% of capacity. Higher runs pull crude out of storage, which is why utilisation is the largest single driver in the LightGBM forecast.

Commercial build momentum+6.77M bbl w-o-w

This week's 6.77M barrel build is the 2nd build in a row. Imports averaged 6.08M b/d against exports of 3.84M b/d.

Forward outlook & risk426.6M projected

Over the next 8 weeks stocks are projected to reach 426.6M barrels by Nov 20, 2026, with a 95% band of 408.7–444.6M. The band widens each week because only the first week comes from the model; later weeks follow the 5-year seasonal pattern.

Generated from EIA and FRED weekly series. Directional accuracy 72.1% over the 104-week holdout.